Veteran Role Model

It is easy to recite the “Remember Me” lines, “You can shed tears that he is gone, or you can smile because he lived.” Reflecting on the impact a recently passed veteran has had on me, it is difficult to fight those sad emotions.

Two weeks before veterans day, Lt. Cmdr. Donald Thompson passed away at 98 years old. A Navy aviator in World War II, he lived a remarkable life. As has been reported in many places, he fully lived life to the end. I previously shared his war experience in the Battle of the Atlantic, and on this centennial of the Armistice of World War I, it would be easy to focus on the period of his military service. For Don, like all veterans, their military contributions to the country are a portion of who they are. My experience with Don, as my neighbor since I was two years old, was of the whole person, and how has had been an enduring role model.

Reflecting back on our interaction, outside of our family, Don has had the most influence on my parents and me in ways that have profoundly shaped our lives for the better.

Professionalism

Without question, he is the first person I knew that was a professional. Not as a point of status, he wore a suit to work when most everyone I recognized wore a factory uniform. At the time, he was a couple years removed from managing customer service at Lyon Metal Products. Our family was modest, both my parents worked hourly jobs at the office furniture manufacturer in town, and came from modest backgrounds of our extended families. As a child, I certainly did not recognize this in any measurable way, but looking back, his professional manner and the subtle differences of being a leader, as opposed to being led, came through in his interactions.

When I was in fifth grade I interviewed him about working. It was a sizeable report for a ten year old, but I only recall one question I asked. Why did he go to work at Merchants Bank after he retired from his career at Lyon Metal Products? His reasoning, “I still have a lot of suits to wear out.” Though a nod to his dry sense of humor, it reflected his nature as a customer facing professional. And where better to do that than at a bank.

Charisma

A natural friendly, extravert, everyone that came in contact with Don liked him. The volume of people at his funeral and the number of glowing stories on facebook reflect the caring, personal way in which he connected with people. In these outpourings, I an see that my family and I are not the only ones with which he connected, seemingly effortlessly.

As an introvert, I would gravitate to his wife, Doris, and her quiet nature, but was transfixed by the ease at which Don connected with others. He made friends and lasting connections in every aspect and endeavor of his life. This seemed impossible for a shy kid that did not want to introduce himself to anyone. I have strived for that continually, and know the impact of openness and a smile can have on others.

Caring Unconditionally

It is a disservice to quantify such things and the most difficult to put into words. I can say confidently that Don and Doris were the first people, outside of my family, that loved me unconditionally. They may have deeply cared for other people as well, and I hope that there are many others who had the gifts of life with them that I have. It would be too easy to say that they were like grandparents. I do not want that analogy to oversimplify their effect with a stereotypical idealisation, or to marginalize the relationship of my family.

Whether it was a swim meet or a Cub Scouts event, Don would periodically attend my activities. This type of caring and interest in others cannot be understated. Learning that there were people interested in my life was significant. It was a safety net. I knew my parents cared and would support me. Having someone outside of the nuclear family provided an added dimension of confidence. Although they were childhood events, the particulars of which are long gone, this interest and personal caring created confidence. Pursuing the unknown and trying new things is in part from his unconditional love and support through those formative years of my life.

Giving

During his full time work career and part time jobs after retirement, he always maintained charitable efforts. Throughout his adult life, he was a Shriner, supporting their causes. For many years he also volunteered at the nearby hospital and raked up over fourteen hundred hours of service. His giving was my early motivation of helping others. This example has continually motivated me to be involved and give back to others in areas where I can.

Adventure

Although we were only neighbors for four years, Don and Doris’ connection to us endured the rest of their lives. After moving, the frequency of visits with them became more spaced out, measured in months instead of days. When we would stop to see them, there were always stories of trips they had been on and where they were planning to go on vacation. Don drove them everywhere, they hit almost all 48 states during their 66 years of marriage. Doris also shared with us her love of visiting Bavaria.

Absent their vacation adventures, my only concept of travel was going to see my grandma in Florida. The concept of going on vacation, in what seemed a far off place, was unimaginable. The stories and trinkets they brought back made these places attainable. I embraced their stories of adventure. The idea of travel is difficult for some. I think about the twelve countries and twenty-eight states I have visited in my professional career. Though those experiences are not vacation, Don and Doris’s influence has made embracing the unknown destination my default mindset.

Growth Mindset

Don had a growth mindset well before it had a label. He was always trying new things. In his seventies he got on the internet, complete with a Compuserve email address. He spent the decade as an octogenarian working part time in customer service at Home Depot (because he was a people person!), and being an early adopter of a smartphone. In his nineties, he started using facebook (because why not), flew a T-6 Navy trainer aircraft (it was liking riding a bike, he proclaimed) and went skydiving (how did a doctor clear him to do that?).

The growth mindset was ingrained in who he was and remarkable to see from a front row seat. My effort of writing in the last couple of years is definitely a result of his influence, as a creative outlet and tackling a new domain. I hope to maintain such endeavors and continue to be relentless in learning like him.

Closing

We are fortunate to have veterans whose sacrifices in the past, along with those active duty service people enduring today, have made this present possible for us. I am so fortunate the relationship I had with Lt. Cmdr. Don Thompson and the positive after service impact he had on me, as well as all those he touched in his civilian life. Reflecting back, there is no doubt he has significantly contributed to the life I have today.

November 8, 2018November 9, 2018

Thank you Formtek!

Time files. The twelve years here have gone quickly. Strangely, I can reflect back to different periods of time, and they don’t seem long past. The last few months have been a personal struggle; reflecting on what I could do and how I could stay with this organization forever, then posit that if I am going to make a change, for my family’s interest, the time is now. The tug of staying here with this wonderful team has been a steady force, making this decision all the more difficult. Some of you have told me that making a move like this is brave. This is a good company made up of great people, and there is some risk in trading this for unknown challenges. For those that see this change as bravery and am happy for the new future ahead, thank you, your sincere feelings will fuel me through the uncertainty.

I have struggled to come up with what to say, and how I may thank everyone here. I could go around and thank everyone for something, and that is a reflection of the healthy team we have here. Instead, to emphasize the magnitude of their significance, I want to focus on a few.

The thanks start and end with Brian. He knows this, as I have told him many times. He is the one that hired me and that pushed for me when Joe didn’t want me because I was too young. Brian selflessly stepped aside so I could be the sales manager and he stayed with the organization. Without his short-term sacrifice, I would have not not had the growth and opportunities that I do today.

It is also important for me to thank Bruce and Darren. They have been extremely supportive of my development. A lot of the things I have worked on or crazy back to back travel itineraries were not assignments from them, but instead was my pursuit of opportunities that I saw for the business. I have benefited tremendously from being provided that latitude and hope that these development efforts will be beneficial for the organization for years after I am gone.

The last one I want to single out is Paul. He and I have traveled a lot of places, in search of sales, as well as setting up and tearing down numerous trade shows. For the past 10 years, we have spoken, skyped or texted almost every single day. I consider Paul a true friend, and my future will not be the same without this daily interaction.

I could not think of how best to sum up all the moments and experiences that have occurred over the years. Recently I read The Tao of Pooh, and I came across a passage the seemed like a perfect fit to describe my time at Formtek:

“The honey doesn’t taste so good once it is being eaten; the goal doesn’t mean so much once it is reached; the reward is not so rewarding once it has been given. If we add up all the rewards in our lives, we won’t have very much. But if we add up the spaces between the rewards, we’ll come up with quite a bit. And if we add up the rewards and the spaces, then we’ll have everything–every minute of the time that we spent. What if we could enjoy it?”

I have enjoyed my time at Formtek. Not only the high points of our success, the rewards, but the process and path to those successes, the time in between. I can say that I came in to work here, striving for success and how we could be our best.

I leave here fondly thinking of Formtek.

Good luck, all the best, and thank you very much!

October 27, 2018October 30, 2018

Missouri S&T Athletic Hall of Fame Induction Speech

2018 Missouri S&T Athletic Hall of Fame Class

Even though I received the letter 4 months ago, I am still surprised to be here today. It’s quite humbling. Being an engineer and swimmer are a couple of the defining elements of who I am, so this honor feels like a combination of the two.

Nowhere else can I start than by thanking my parents. Their sacrifices, financially and emotionally, as well as nights, weekends and missed family vacations, are the reason I am standing up here. This honor is theirs more than anyone else. Thank you.

Also, I want to thank Doug Grooms and Mark Mullin. Coach Grooms doggedness in recruiting me was a key factor in landing here. With a limited budget, he maximizes the resources available and maintains a nationally ranked team year after year. During my time at UMR, Mark was head of the NCAA swim committee and kept swimming a priority at the Division 2 level. Student-athletes continue to benefit from his commitment to the sport and NCAA Interscholastic athletics in general.

I did not expect him to be here today, but I feel it also important to thank Keith Bailey. His continued financial support of the university has made this experience possible for countless students, including me. Along with a group of students, I was fortunate to meet him during my time in Rolla. He shared with us a story of accepting new challenges. My takeaway from that encounter is to embrace the new and unknown. In this era, many challenges we tackle are unprecedented, there are no right or wrong answers, we need to try, fail quickly, learn, and keep pushing forward.

I am also grateful for my teammates and those I was fortunate to help coach and recruit while I was here. Reflecting on the other swimmers that have preceded me in Hall of Fame induction, and those I expect are upcoming, it is hard for me to see how I measure up to the heights of their athletic accomplishments. Since finding out about this honor, I have reflected on how I got here and why I may have been selected.

Recently I read the allegory of Taoism by Benjamin Hoff, which helped to galvanize my perspective:

That doesn’t mean that the goals we have don’t count. They do, mostly because they cause us to go through the process, and it’s the process that makes us wise, happy, or whatever. If we do things in the wrong sort of way, it makes use miserable, angry, confused, and things like that. The goal has to be right for us, and it has to be beneficial, in order to ensure a beneficial process. But aside from that, it’s really the process that’s important. Enjoyment of the process is the secret that erases the myths of the Great Reward…Perhaps this can help to explain the everyday significance of…the Way.

During my time in Rolla, whether I was a student, athlete, teammate, researcher or assistant coach, I embraced and enjoyed the process. I hope that embracing the process is the legacy I left. The experience in Rolla and embracing the process has had an immeasurable influence on my life, for which I am forever grateful.

Thank you!

July 13, 2018July 13, 2018

Leadership Imperative in Fast Food Management

leadership and cultural develop needed in fast food

Not to overstate the impact, but this is a pivotal moment for the fast food industry to be better employers. With seven major players in that market agreeing to forego their anti-employee ‘No Poach,’ clause. For many workers, a job in fast food is a stepping stone on a career path to a livable wage. Granted, there is some that move into supervisory roles and management who can flourish in the industry. At the minimum wage levels for ‘associates,’ it is not a career. Despite this, the impact for associates can be profound. With the no-poach clause removed, employees are effectively at-will. Now, food franchise leadership must differentiate themselves to retain employees. Yes, the ability to move around more freely will pressure the wage levels and that will be balanced with the move to further automate stores. Now, like any industry, they must inspire and lead effectively to retain workers.

There are two fast food restaurants near our office, which are different brands, within walking distance. Based on proximity, they are recruiting from the same pool of candidates. What continually amazes me about these two stores, is the distinct contrast in the customer service between them. The store that has been here longer has predictably poor service. [poor leadership?] On a number of occasions I have received my sandwich and then, driven to the office, only to find that it is a bun with condiments only, the star of the show (egg, chicken, beef, etc) is missing! After an initial attempt going back to the store, the general indifference from the associate made the effort appear fruitless. Based on the lines at each register and drive-thru queue wrapping the entire parking lot, it seems that my dissatisfaction will not be a blip on their radar.

The other store, which is opened in the last seven years, is a completely different experience. Every time I go in or use the drive-thru, the experience is prompt, accurate and positive. Over the time they have been opened, I notice the faces change, but the experience remains the same. [good leadership?] With the predictable, positive experience, I go back. Colleagues remark that they do not like the food there, but it is easy and dependable, so when they are in a pinch, that is where they grab a quick bite to eat.

It would be easy to lament that for several generations, fast food was the common first job, to learn responsibility, experience leadership from an adult that is not from home, school or church, and to gain the skills of money management. Certainly, there are a lot of first jobs that can teach those skills, but with the transition from fast-food to fast-casual and the decline of teenagers with summer jobs, the face of fast food has gotten older. With the ‘No Poach’ clause, these older workers, with the skills developed in fast food, were relatively captive, unless they could make the leap to another industry. With that barrier removed, employees can now move around and earn more where their skills may pay better. But the impact now is greater than the wage.

The difference in customer experience between the two restaurants belies a greater issue: leadership and culture. The first store does not hire all the indifferent employees and the second store filters through and only picks the good ones, over and over. The restaurants, and particularly the franchisees, have to assess their culture and the leadership environment they foster, or lack thereof, to make the jobs they offer a meaningful experience for the employees. The head of the International Franchise Association indicates that these minimum wage jobs were not meant to be livable or permanent. If that is the case, then beyond the explicit task of getting the job done, these store owners need to focus on the value of the job to the employee, for the time the employee is there, to develop their skills for that next job, and to foster the environment and a leadership culture. Then, when the inevitable employee turnover occurs, the next wave of personnel embrace the established culture and can propel it forward, in a sustainable way.

For anyone leadership looking for a valuable tool to share with employees, here is a great podcast from organizational psychologist Adam Grant on emotions at work. And for further reading for leaders, take a look at A More Beautiful Question.

May 24, 2018May 29, 2018

TDI Buyback: Abusing the Class Action Settlement?

Salvaged Titles are Excluded from the TDI Settlement Process

With the summer road trip season upon us, it seemed timely to bring up a car topic that has moved out of the spotlight: The Volkswagen TDI Settlement. Initially, it seemed like writing about this would be pretty straightforward, but within the buyback experience, a larger issue was exposed: VW allowing opportunists to exploit the settlement process.

The Settlement Process, First-hand Experience

The buyback process was quick and easy. The agent who did our closing, Mark, I had met previously. Though professional, on initial interaction, his job appeared unpredictable and stressful. Mark seemed nervous, hands shaking and out of sorts. As it turns out, the buyback role requires the agent to constantly drive between VW and Audi dealerships in the region, for closings with individuals who select their local dealership, resulting in an inconsistent base of operations. Plus, the demeanor of the sell-back individual is unpredictable. Some are still confused and stressed by the process when there is a loan closing involved, and others feel they are cheated and want to be heard. My impression from speaking with him is that “Don’t kill the messenger”, has not been observed by sellers.

Our buyback experience wrapped up quickly: we went out and demonstrated the vehicle turned on and could drive backward and forward 10 feet, then we were handed over a check. The reason for us selecting the buyback instead of emissions fix was described previously.

TDI Settlement outlines a 6 step claims process — Although VWGoA Outlines a 6 Step process, the sub-step questions and requirements put the process at closer to two dozen.

The Volkswagen & Audi brands, which I will collectively reference VWGoA (Volkswagen Group of America), documentation process, that preceded the buyback, was extensive. It was 19 steps, providing various paperwork, declarations, and scheduling.

After wrapping up our quick buyback meeting, I inquired to the VWGoA agent how the process is going overall. He mentioned that Volkswagen dealers recently began accepting the buyback checks as a trade-in, which was a good deal for customer retention, as it eliminated some sales tax. The process remained anxiety-inducing for some claimants who have a loan on their vehicle.

The Dark Side

It was freely shared that individuals are taking advantage of the system. One story particularly bothered the VWGoA agent:

Two brothers unabashadely took $10k out of their 401(k) to fund the purchase of salvaged TDI’s that are in the qualifying age of vehicles for the buyback. In January the brothers showed up to a buyback appointment with 3 Audi TDI on a flatbed. Each one turned on, which at the time was the only requirement for qualifying a vehicle as being operational, and that day they walked away with a check for $140,000. The VWGoA agent refused to sign off on this buyback because the vehicles had salvaged titles, which are explicitly excluded, per the Terms of the Class Action Settlement.

The TDI Settlement has many requirements to qualify for Buyback or Restitution — Salvaged Titles are Excluded from the TDI Settlement. The exclusion is clear.

Stepping in for the buyback agent’s objection, VWGoA Corporate indicated they would accept the vehicles, and also informed him these two guys have 37 more vehicles they are selling back. Rough buyback estimate, $1.2 million!

So Many Questions…

This is where my thoughts and speculation began!

My Question: Why would Volkswagen accept these, as they clearly exclude salvaged vehicles in the Buyback Terms & Conditions?

My Guess: There is a bounty and this adds to the headcount. VWGoA needs to remove or modify 85% of the affected vehicles, per the EPA website:

Volkswagen must remove from commerce in the United States or perform an approved emissions modification on at least 85 percent of the affected 2.0 liter vehicles by June 2019.

A salvaged vehicle has no visibility of being removed from the road, with respect to VW proving to the EPA they are indeed removed. Sure, they could scan all vehicle registrations in every state and count the number of TDI that are no longer registered and cross-reference those that are claimed for buyback or modification. That would be an expensive undertaking for VW. The states have no reason to do that VIN registration search for free, particularly on behalf of an offending corporation, and a car no longer being registered does not prove it is any longer being driven, which is the whole point, removing these vehicles from the road [or modifying them] to eliminate the excess emissions.

This was a passing discussion with the VWGoA agent during our buyback process and it caught me off guard. I imagine someone could investigate this further and validate if people are taking advantage of the buyback, or found some loophole despite the vehicles not passing the clean title. It is also surprising if this story is true, of a VW owner stripping down their Golf before turning it in, and being denied. After Volkswagen’s poor conduct resulting in the TDI scandal, it seems they would want to stay clear of any transactions which are in conflict with the Terms of the Class Action Settlement. If they are accepting salvaged vehicles as buybacks, to ensure they reach the 85% threshold, such a move would be customer-centric, but again is lacking in transparency, which does not build customer confidence.

https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/volkswagen-clean-air-act-civil-settlement

March 24, 2018November 7, 2018

How Good is Caeleb Dressel?

It is a rare occasion to see swimming highlights on Sportscenter, but a few days ago that happened. Caeleb Dressel has been on an absolute tear this week at NCAA Championships, shredding his own 50 Free American and US Open record, lowering it to an unbelievable 17.63. In the post Michael Phelps era, it is great to see swimming highlights transcend the sports landscape. In the context of swimming, how fast are his record-breaking swims? Are they unprecedented?

There are technique and technology advances that have shifted swimming over time. Technology includes water filtration, lanelines, blocks, and air filtration, as well as lower friction materials for suit, goggle and cap design, as well as the availability of video for biomechanic analysis. Considering the last 40 years, there has also been the innovation of the backstroke flip turn, emphasis on underwater kicking, and dolphin kick on breaststroke breakouts. Freestyle has had the least changes in the timeframe noted, so for comparison, I considered the record progression of the 50 Free, 100 Free, and 200 Free. Additionally, the 400 IM was also considered. The starting point for analyzing each of these events is what I considered a monumental record time as the starting point. What was a monumental swim? A record that lasted more than 10 years. Doing this analysis the datapoints for the 200 free were consistent between Matt Biondi and Rowdy Gaines, so I used the old one (1981 instead of 1987). The time when that record was broken was used to trend the future progression of the record, and a +/- 1% projection is shown in the charts, to illustrate a range that would be reasonable for the record swim to land.

The following records were selected for use in the analysis:

400 IM, Tom Dolan, 3:38.18, 1995
200 Free, Rowdy Gaines, 1:33.91, 1981
100 Free, Matt Biondi, 41.80, 1987
50 Free, Tom Jager, 19.05, 1990

I am partial to Tom Dolan’s 400 IM Record swim, for a few reasons. His performances in the 1995 NCAA Season, setting American records in the 400 IM, 500 Free and 1650 Free, all of which stood for roughly a decade, and led the University of Michigan to a National Championship, is unprecedented in the last 30 years for a team that was not sprint focused. Additionally, those swims were a lead-up to back to back 400 IM Olympic Gold Medals in Atlanta and Sydney.

In 2009 Tyler Clary significantly dropped the 400 IM record, by over two seconds, and eight years later Chase Kalisz dropped the record another 2.5 seconds with his swim at NCAA Championships. Looking at that progression over the course of 22 years, the improvement is in an expected range. Interestingly, the time improvements seem to be in a reasonable range, comparing to previous milestones of the 400 IM.

Similarly, looking at Rowdy Gaines 200 Free Record swim in 1981 and the amount it was broken by Matt Biondi 6 years later, there was some incremental improvements to that record, but it was not until Simon Burnett’s swim of 1:31.20 in 2006 that the record was really pushed forward significantly. Even so, considering that time progression, the record by Blake Pieroni and subsequently Townley Haas at the 2018 NCAA Championships, this record seems to be within an expected range. It is cool that the 1:30 barrier was broken, but based on how the record has progressed over the last 40 years, it looks like it was about time for this to happen.

It gets a little more interesting when looking at the 100 Free. Matt Biondi’s 41.80 record swim from 1987 was tied by Anthony Ervin in the early 2001 and broke it in 2002, but the record was not lowered, significantly, until the supersuit year of 2009 by Caesar Cielo. Projecting that record forward, Dressel’s 39.90 is slightly faster than we would anticipate. Admittedly, Caeleb said he was tired in the 100 free swim on the last day of NCAA Championships. Considering what he did in the 50 Free and 100 fly, we can only speculate where he could have taken this record, which may be well outside the expected record progression range.

On the other hand, Dressel’s 50 Free this year, or his swim from each of the last 3 NCAA Champsionships for that matter, is without comparison. Tom Jager’s 19.05 was a historic swim, a record that stood for 15 years, until Fred Bousquet became the first one to break 19 seconds. As an 18-second 50 Free has become more common, the question arises on how fast is possible. Dressel’s 17.63 is half a second faster than his previous best, from 2017 and further separates him from history in this event. On top of winning the event by a full second (1.01 to be exact), in a historical context, his swim is unprecedented.

How is this possible? I point to a couple reasons: anaerobic performance and momentum. In the other events, aerobic performance, and cardiovascular conditioning dominate. The aerobic ability of these swimmers is going to be relatively even, considering they are all elite athletes that train at a high level. Over time, technology combined with these physiological characteristics and physical abilities will drive the incremental improvements in maximum performance, which in this case, our measure is the US Open record in these four events. For that reason, the 100 free and longer events appear relatively consistent from a historical trend.

In the 50 free, on the other hand, the aerobic requirement is minimal, because the majority of the race is anaerobic, dependent on fast twitch muscles, so it introduces a much different physiology. Plus, the start is a significant portion of the race, ie, jumping, a relatively non-swimmer skill. As a result of the start, when the swimmer hits that water is the point of greatest momentum. On top of excellent technique and feel for the water, Caeleb Dressel has an athletic ability to jump, and his entry maintains that momentum to such a greater extent than others. It is not an exaggeration to say that he performs this at a level which we have never seen.

50 free swim split differentials of 2018 NCAA men's 50 free final — Difference between first and second 25s (seconds)

His split differential from first to second 25 is in the middle of the range of swimmers in that final (0.67 vs a median of 0.69), which is a bit surprising because he had clean water on the second 25 which would put him in better position to be faster than those swimming in the outside lanes. That lends more support to the idea that his aerobic abilities are not exceptional. From his entry in the water, he is at a higher momentum and through his technique he maintains that speed, while having a traditional drop off from the first to second 50.

What do you think? Are there other monumental records that I missed? And how about Caeleb Dressel being down to earth?

References:

Image from Dan D’Addona, via Swimming World Magazine: http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/bandanna-kids-and-the-down-to-earth-caeleb-dressel/

https://swimswam.com/event/2018-ncaa-d1-mens-championships/

http://magazines.swimmingworldmagazine.com:9997/spipdf/20120118billbellmscytop50.pdf

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/aub/sports/c-swim/auto_pdf/0708-SD-MG-4.pdf

March 23, 2018March 23, 2018

Section 232 Steel Tariff Developments

Encouraging 232 Developments

As I have been very critical of the seemingly overreaching Section 232 action on Steel, I read some encouraging news that is important to share. According do the US Trade Representative, the Section 232 tariffs are being delayed for countries currently negotiating exemptions. As reported by the American Metal Market, those temporarily exempted countries include the European Union, Argentina, Australia, Brazil and South Korea.

These currently exempted countries, along with Canada and Mexico, account for greater than 50% of our steel imported to the US annually, and in-kind more than 15% of our overall steel consumption. Noticeably absent from this list is Japan, which is a source of high tech steels used in a variety of industries.

In discussions with market participants, I have recently heard of 35% price increases from distributors on various grades of steel, and a datapoint of 25% increase on tool steel that is made in Germany. With this latest news, what will distributors do? Will they scale back those announced price increases, as their savvy customers know the origin of the material they buy?

In the meantime, and even if steelmakers and steel distributors do not scale back on these price increases, those in the steel industry are experiencing high margins, at a level we have not seen in years.

Scrap has been the primary driver of steel prices in the US for decades. Year to date, the price of steel is up 30% but the price of steel scrap is up less than 10%. So what is driving the price increases?

Tax Increases? No
Wages? No
Natural Gas? No
Electricity? No

Its difficult to point the price increases to anything other than the Section 232 hype machine, on top of the protectionist agenda that has been raising steel prices since November 2016. Steel pricing is up 3 times more than steel scrap so far in 2018

How do you push back on these price increases? It is time to be opportunistic. There is certainly a steel distributor somewhere, who is will to move their inventory at a more modest price increase than those who are aggressively going to the 25-35% price increase range described above. Go back to your vendor and talk through the increases and the rationale above, regarding the origin of the material. If they are a good vendor and a real partner, they should come to the table and find some compromise on these price increases. After all, this is why we develop relationships with vendors and not just treat them like a number to be replaced as soon as there is a lower price elsewhere.

March 14, 2018March 19, 2018

Where Are the Women in Manufacturing

How do we get women passionate for science into manufacturing

Last week, diving deep into the speculative end of the Section 232 Steel tariff pool, and prepping for a trip to China, I neglected to keep tabs on a couple job postings that we have listed. Since the beginning of the year, we have been looking for someone with a technical background to develop a mid-level sales position. Getting back to them now, and looking through all the candidates, it struck me, where are the women in manufacturing?

In the roughly two months of receiving resumes, there have been a wide range of applicants, both qualified and not, but through it all, zero female candidates. No gender diversity, across LinkedIn, alumni job boards, local classifieds and recruiters. Seeing this, I am both perplexed and concerned: is this female candidate void a mirror, reflecting our deficiency, or a window to see the larger issue in the industry?

Or maybe it is both and the fact is that we have a long way to go. It feels like support for STEM is everywhere. For the last several years, coaching high schoolers, there were many girls I worked with who were good students with an interest in math and science and a work ethic I admired. I would hire any of them to work in this role, but besides not being old enough to work in manufacturing, they also have no interest. It seems that all the support of students in STEM is only the beginning. We also have to connect and inspire girls to the opportunities in manufacturing and other technical industries.

Eighteen years ago when I was entering university to study mechanical engineering, it was generally accepted that females studying engineering were rare. At the time, roughly 1/3 of the engineering student population were female and that fraction was generous, I do not recall a class as an undergraduate or a teaching assistant where 1/3 of the students were women.

Fast forward to now, and despite a decade of intense STEM support across the country, alumni relations informed me the rate of female enrollment is unchanged from when I was in college. WHAT?! How is that possible? I realize it is a midsize school, and there may be some big-name programs elsewhere that can tout growth of female enrollment, but this is not an isolated problem. How are there not more females interested in engineering? If the broad topic of engineering is not gaining interest, then the subset of manufacturing does not have a chance!

My view is distorted by my spheres of influence. Working with manufacturing companies every day and participating in a technical advisory at the local community college, I am almost constantly surrounded by like-minded people who support STEM and increasing opportunities in our industry. Plus, I infer the connection between STEM and technical careers, but that may be a leap for others outside of technical industries. As a high school coach, on the other hand, with many student’s parents being doctors, lawyers, business owners, and entrepreneurs, the fact that I worked in manufacturing was overlooked in favor of the more altruistic label as a volunteer youth athletics, so there is certainly some negative bias to overcome.

And even if we succeed in encouraging teenagers to pursue these technical careers, there are several years before they will be in the workforce. What about filling the immediate roles that are available? How do we motivate and attract women to this industry and careers? The point above, regarding my influences and connections, is that I do not have the answers.

A few years ago we hired a sales person that came from selling wholesale beauty products to salons. When she was going to college for fashion, did she think one day she would be helping maintenance workers troubleshoot hydraulic components and selling them replacement parts? Doubtful. And you know what, she is awesome at it! How did we get her? Pure luck. Human resources or I cannot claim any special insight. This is not to pat ourselves on the back. Being lucky is not going to solve the gender imbalance in manufacturing.

So what do we do? To paraphrase Sheryl Sandberg, how do we overcome them not doing something where they do not see themselves? I can think of several great women leaders in manufacturing that I have had an opportunity to work with, but the reality is, on the scale that the industry needs, there are not enough of them that can serve as role models for students. Women in Manufacturing is a great organization and I hope they can build even more momentum to encourage their peers to be a force in this industry.

And how else can we grow manufacturing? Take a chance! Reach across and embrace candidates from other industries. Manufacturing can be taught and if someone has the interest and willingness to learn and apply themselves, there is no doubt the employee and business will benefit. With the impending retail apocalypse, how many experienced store managers and key holders could kick butt given a chance in manufacturing? Probably thousands. Let’s figure out how to attract them, and ambitious individuals from other areas, to the opportunities in manufacturing.

March 6, 2018March 19, 2018

Section 232 Steel Tariffs – How to Respond

On heels of the Commerce Departments Section 232 Report, the Trump Administration indicated they will impose aluminum and steel tariffs on those imported materials: 25% on Steel and 10% on aluminum. As written about previously, there are several concerns about the basis of the section 232 report and its assumptions of how steel is a national security concern. With the steel tariffs imminent, it is time to move from critiquing the report to considering what effects this may have on business and in the market. What situations could this protectionist move cause? How will interest rates affect consumers of steel? How will steel sourcing change the trucking market.

Inventory

Inventory costs will increase, a concern for manufacturers that fund their inventory through revolving credit. This will decrease how much inventory they can effectively carry or it will impede them from using their credit line for other needs, such as unplanned maintenance. With the Federal Reserve expected to increase interest rates three times this year, that will amplify the inventory challenge for manufacturers by making it more expensive to service their credit facilities.

Challenge: Cost Increases

Response: ???

Raise Prices?

When input costs increase, particularly raw materials, there are a few options in response. Manufacturers could raise prices. In an expanding market, it is possible to do so with minimal concern of losing market share. But in a tight market, and in the current environment, where customers could search for another vendor, who may have a lower price as they are working off older, less expensive inventory, there is a potential to lose business.

Product Redesign

The challenge can be put to engineering to redesign products to decrease the requirement of expensive materials. Is the material cost impact enough that a product can be redesigned to use non-metallic material? For example, with the cost of steel going up and oil remaining steady, could a manufactured sheet metal component be replaced by molded plastic? This has already occurred in consumer products, such as Honda’s polymer lawn mower deck.

Lean Lean Lean

Manufacturing operations may review how to reduce the non-material costs of production. This is typically thought of as reducing labor, which can be accomplished by re-evaluating the manufacturing process and adopting automation. Depending on the industry and whether the manufacturer is an OEM or a subcontractor will change whether selling price can be adjusted, product redesigned or changes in the manufacturing process.

The Capital Question

One solution is increasing automation. Those well-capitalized manufacturing companies can invest in more automation to reduce the labor component of their manufactured product cost. Hopefully, the employee can be redeployed on some other function in the business, and based on the shortage of technical workers, this should be realistic.

In an environment where raw material costs and interest rates are increasing, the investment in automation is limited to those that can pay cash for capital expenditures or are able to service an increased debt load. The option of investing in capital equipment is limited to those with sufficient, unused cash in the bank, as increased material cost and stagnant prices reduce cash flow.

Choices: Inaction and Investment

For those companies manufacturing who have used the last 8 years to right the balance sheet and build a rainy day fund, this is a time to separate themselves from illiquid competitors. The question then becomes strategy:

Do you keep prices down, absorb the cost increase and wait out competitors, who cannot do so, in an effort to gain market share?
Do you take this as a challenge to make that next step in automation, to decrease the labor cost of the product being manufactured?

The biggest concern I see is these market challenges causing a greater dichotomy among manufacturers of steel products. As mentioned in the previous review of the Section 232, right after the Commerce Department’s announcement, a local midwest distributor took the opportunity send out 15% price increases on steel material. Manufacturers can invest in automation, to reduce labor, as a way to counteract that material cost increase. For those manufacturers that have not been able to pay down debt and do not have the flexibility to invest in automation, the gap will expand between them and their market’s leaders.

February 21, 2018March 3, 2018

What will Section 232 Action on Steel do to US Manufacturing?

“Steel prices make up only a fraction of the retail cost of a car or truck. In other industries, such as canned beverages and food, “it’s even more trivial… a fraction of 1 cent,” stated Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to address the Section 232 report for Steel and Aluminum.

That’s great; rising steel prices will have a limited effect on the cost basis for the end manufacturer of complex products like automobiles (or appliances), but what about the fabricators and manufacturers who provide the components to those end products? Manufacturing suppliers will most certainly get squeezed as they buy more expensive raw material and are unable to pass on that increased cost to the automakers.

And why does that matter? The manufacturers of metal components employ 16 times more people than the 140,000 American steelworkers. Notwithstanding Section 232 action triggering a trade ware on the international stage, close to home it is difficult to disconnect such a move from having a negative effect on small and medium manufacturers.

An op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal recently, put a thoughtful perspective on the concern threat of 232 action costing American jobs. As a point of reference, if we look to the Section 201 action taken during the second Bush administration, the temporary import relief to steel industry through tariffs, had a negative impact, raising costs and resulting in job losses. At that time, I recall a Tier 1 automotive supplier telling me they lost a long-term contract, at a Big 3 automaker, for a steel dashboard support component. The Big 3 buyer’s new source, overseas, had a price for the complete part that was less than the domestic supplier’s raw material cost. Due to situations like this across the country, it is estimated that roughly 200,000 jobs were lost in American steel-consuming industries due to that section 201 relief. For comparison, there were roughly 187,500 people employed in the US steel industries. Sadly, many were sacrificed to protect jobs of the few.

Why overreach and protect the primary industries like steel and aluminum? Its hard to set aside the deep pockets to lobby for those two industries, compared to the much larger and less organized small and medium business manufacturers. And perception? Fortunately, steel is a defined, census tracked industry. So let us look at a little Q&A to debunk some populist fodder of our threats and benefits.

Question 1: How much steel is China sending to the US?

Answer: Not much. 2.2% of total steel imports are from China, which is less than 1% of total US consumption. Surprisingly, Russia, which the US has numerous sanctions against, supplies 3x more steel to the US than China.

Question 2: What percentage of steel used in the US is domestic or foreign made?

Answer: Roughly 70% is domestic and 30% is imported.

Question 3: What is the current capacity utilization rate of the US steelmaking industry?

Answer: 75.9% as of February 19, 2018, up 0.8%-points from the previous week.

It is easy to look at the statistics and think, “Oh, we are at 75% utilization capacity and 70% of the steel we consume is domestic, so if we increase to 100% capacity, then we will only need to import 5% of our needs. Math!”

Nooooooooooooooooo…It is not that simple. Steel is a catch-all term, of which there are many types: carbon, alloy, electrical, among others. On top of that, those types come in many forms: ingots, bar, plate, and coil. The capacity available in the US is not being utilized for various reasons, particularly efficiency and need. There are other mills that produce those same products as the idled facilities, but much more productively, so those mills are profitable at a lower steel price. Once steel prices rise, through tariffs or supply-demand dynamics, then the less productive mills can get in the game. That would displace some imports, but not all. At idled mills, there are some products and grades of steel that are not in demand. As higher grades of materials are specified in industries, such as the latest generation of ultra-high strength steels (UHSS) in automotive applications, or Grade 80 material for metal roofing and construction, it has left mild or commercial quality (CQ) steel capacity less needed. There is not enough capacity of the sophisticated alloys available domestically, and there is too much capacity of common materials. Thus, effectively utilizing 100% of domestic steel capacity is not possible. We could not build enough ‘bridges to nowhere’ to utilize some of the idled capacity.

What is happening now? This week, a metals buyer told me their primary steel supplier informed 15% price increases were coming. This announcement was four days after the section 232 report’s release. How much does 15% matter? In high volume, competitive industries like construction or tubing, material costs make up 70-90% of the selling price of the product. Will those manufacturers pass on the material cost? To make money they will have to raise prices and they may lose some orders in the short term while cheaper inventory at competitors gets absorbed in the market.

And what else will happen? Imports of finished products will go up, which will hurt the manufacturers of value-added products. Like the automotive example with the dashboard support component, supply chain experts will resource overseas as they will be able to find finished products that are less expensive than their domestic vendors raw material cost. It took the Commerce Department 10 months to submit their Section 232 report on the steel and aluminum industry. How long would it take them to identify all the industries that consume these materials, who will be hurt by finished goods imports displacing their products in the market?

With history as an indication, we would be foolish to ignore the effects of Section 201 action to protect the steel industry in the early 2000s. A move by the government to proceed with Section 232 protection, whether it is through tariffs, quotas or minim prices, will be a detriment to competitiveness and employment in the broader American manufacturing landscape.

Sources:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/steel-production

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2017pr/02/steel/index.html

http://www.steel.org/about-aisi/statistics.aspx

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-punish-american-workers-1519078840